1999 Ph. D., Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, Specialization in Environmental Economics.
Dissertation: Economic Evaluation of the Health and Environmental Benefits of an Integrated Pest Management Program in the Philippines
1995 – M.S., Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, Specialization in Natural Resource and Environmental Economics.
Thesis: Targeting Areas as a Cost-Effective Method of Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution Control: The Case of Michigan
1990 B.S., Agricultural Economics, University of the Philippines at Los Baños
Specialization in Agricultural Marketing and Prices. (cum laude)
Thesis: The Market Potentials of Non-Traditional Coconut Products in the Philippines
Senior Economist, Northern Economics, Inc.
Economic Impact Studies/Input-Output Analyses
- Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Medicaid Expansion in Alaska, 2019. This study was conducted for the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium. The study quantified the economic and fiscal effects of Alaska’s Medicaid Expansion Program since implementation and the potential benefits of the Program over the next 10 years. The economic analysis measured the benefits of increased health care spending in the state’s economy resulting from Medicaid Expansion in terms of jobs, labor income, and economic output. The fiscal effects analysis compared the Program costs and revenues to the State of Alaska, quantified potential state corporate income tax revenues that could offset the state’s share of the costs of the Program, identified other cost offsets, and compared the impact of additional Medicaid revenues relative to the state’s transportation projects in terms of federal revenues received by the state for each dollar invested in the Program.
- Potential Economic Benefits of Future Exploration, Development, and Production of Petroleum Resources in Alaska OCS Areas, 2018. This study was prepared for the American Petroleum Institute. It quantified the potential economic benefits of petroleum development in selected Alaska OCS planning areas, particularly the Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, Cook Inlet, and Gulf of Alaska. Major tasks for this study included the following: i) developing a set of reasonable assumptions regarding the timing and activity levels associated with industry-wide exploration, development, and production of oil and gas resources in the Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, Gulf of Alaska, and Cook Inlet planning areas; ii) using the MAG-PLAN Alaska model, a region-specific economic impact model used by BOEM to evaluate potential economic impacts that may result from federal actions such as lease sales in OCS areas, to quantify the economic benefits to Alaska, both at the regional and statewide levels; and iii) quantifying the economic benefits to the rest of the U.S. using the Policy Insight model developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) for Northern Economics.
- Potential Economic Benefits of Petroleum Development in the Alaska Arctic OCS under Different Regulatory Scenarios, 2017. This study was prepared for the American Petroleum Institute. The study quantified the potential economic benefits of petroleum development in the Arctic OCS areas in Alaska (Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea). Two regulatory scenarios that reflect different regulatory frameworks and levels of access to Arctic OCS areas were considered for this analysis. To quantify the potential effects of petroleum development, a set of scenarios that reflect possible industry-wide exploration, development, and production activities (E&D scenarios) for the Beaufort Sea and the Chukchi Sea OCS areas under the different regulatory cases were developed. The economic benefits of potential petroleum development under the different regulatory cases were measured in terms of direct, indirect, and induced employment, income, and government revenues. Two economic impact models were used for this study: the MAG-PLAN model and the REMI model.
- Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric Project: Benefit-Cost and Economic Impact Analyses, 2015. This study was commissioned by the Alaska Energy Authority to evaluate the economic merits of the proposed Susitna-Watana Hydroelectric project. The study included a benefit-cost analysis and an economic impact analysis. The economic impact analysis provided information on potential job, income, and economic output effects of the project during construction and operations. This task involved determining potential local spending by sector by year and quantifying employment, income effects, and local business effects using the IMPLAN input-output model. The model inputs included, itemized capital and operating costs by year, and assumptions regarding potential local spending. The outputs of the model included estimates of direct, indirect, and induced employment, income, and economic output potentially generated by project spending.
- Socioeconomic Analysis Report, 2013. This study was prepared for Statoil to support its decision-making process for evaluating how to proceed with the company’s exploration drilling program in the Chukchi Sea. The objective of the study was to determine the potential social and economic effects—both the risks and the benefits—associated with offshore exploration, development, and production activities on coastal communities in Northwest Alaska. The analysis covered the community of Wainwright Alaska, which was identified as the logistics base and the landfall for the offshore pipeline, as well as other potentially impacted communities including Barrow, Atqasuk, Point Hope, Point Lay, Kivalina, Nome, Kotzebue, Gambell, Savoonga, and Unalaska. A regional economic impact model developed by Northern Economics for the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management was used to provide projections of direct, indirect, and induced employment effects at the state and regional levels. A radiation model was used to determine the economic effects at the community level. A fiscal model was also developed to quantify potential local, regional, and state government revenues resulting from exploration, development, and production activities.
- MAG-PLAN Alaska Model Upgrade 2012. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management commissioned this work to update an economic impact model (MAG-PLAN Alaska) used by the agency to estimate potential economic impacts of oil and gas development in OCS planning areas offshore Alaska. The update involved incorporating the best and latest employment and cost data available for the spectrum of oil and gas activities. This was accomplished by collecting information from companies involved in Alaska’s oil and gas industry. The updated model provides BOEM with an integrated analytical tool that quantifies Stage 1 and Stage 2 economic impacts of OCS exploration, development, and production. Stage 1 estimates direct expenditures, direct manpower requirements, and direct government revenues resulting from OCS oil and gas activities specified in the exploration and development scenarios. Stage 2 estimates the multiplier effects of spending associated with OCS activities on potentially affected regions in Alaska.
- Matanuska-Susitna Borough Rail Extension TIGER Grant Assistance. The Matanuska-Susitna Borough engaged Northern Economics to conduct an economic impact study and a benefit-cost analysis in support of its Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery (TIGER) grant application. The economic impact analysis measured the direct, indirect, and induced economic effects of the construction and operations of the project with respect to economic output (or business sales), employment, and labor income. The analysis was done using the IMPLAN input-output (IO) model. The IO model is a matrix that tracks the flow of money between the industries within a specified economic region of interest. The model can measure the stimulus effects or multiplier effects of an economic activity. IO analysis is typically used to evaluate the benefits of an economic activity to the region.
- Offshore Environmental Cost Model Fiscal Impacts Module, 2010. Assisted Industrial Economics, Inc. in this economic modeling project for the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. The Offshore Environmental Cost Model is used by the agency to estimate the net environmental and social costs caused by OCS oil and gas activities in the different OCS planning areas in the United States. NEI was the lead in developing the spreadsheet modules for the fiscal and commercial fisheries impact categories. The fiscal impact module quantifies the potential costs and revenues to affected state and local governments of OCS development.
- Military Economic Influence in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. An economic analysis for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough of the military’s economic contribution to the Mat-Su region. The study was part of a Joint Land Use Study to promote compatible civilian development patterns near Elmendorf and Fort Richardson. The economic benefits of the military were evaluated by quantifying the direct, indirect, and induced economic effects of local spending on goods and services associated with the operations of the military bases, and the local spending on goods and services by the employees who work on the military bases but live in the MSB.
- Launch Pad Three Economic Impact Assessment, 2012. Analysis of the anticipated activity generated by the construction of Launch Pad Three (LP3) and subsequent medium-sized launch operations. The assessment quantified the direct, indirect and induced effects expected from the construction of a new launch pad and subsequent operations of the facility. Using economic data provided by the IMPLAN software and database, we determined the multiplier effects of the spending expected from upcoming construction and launch operations. These economic benefits were quantified in terms of economic output, jobs, and labor income.
- The Economic Benefits of the Alaska Aerospace Corporation, 2007-2011. Review of Alaska Aerospace Corporation’s economic contribution to the State of Alaska. The analysis quantified AAC and the Kodiak Launch Complex’s contributions to the State of Alaska and to the local economies (Kodiak and Anchorage) that benefit from its operations and projects. The economic contribution or impacts of AAC were primarily measured in terms of direct, indirect, and induced economic output, jobs, and labor income. Study also looked at other community benefits such as local economic diversification and quality of jobs.
- The Economic Benefits of the Kenai LNG Export Facility, 2007. The study evaluated the economic benefits to the state and the Kenai Peninsula Borough region of the production and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Kenai LNG facility. The study quantified the direct, indirect, and induced jobs, income, output, and value-added generated by the facility in 2006. The study was conducted for ConocoPhillips Alaska, Inc. and Marathon Oil Company.
- The Economic Effects of the Proposed Southcentral Rail Extension, 2007. The study evaluated the potential direct, indirect, and induced economic effects of the construction and operations of the proposed 43-mile rail extension from Willow to Port Mackenzie. The study also evaluated the economic effects of associated development projects that may occur as a result of the rail extension, including a new dock at Port Mackenzie, loading and unloading facilities from the rail terminal to the dock, and expansion of coal production at the Usibelli Coal mine. The study was conducted for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough.
- Economic Impact Assessment of the Hatcher Pass Ski Area and Recreational Community Development Project, 2006. The study evaluated the total economic impacts (including the associated multiplier effects) of the proposed development of the ski resort and recreation area lands in the vicinity of Hatcher Pass. The study was prepared for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough.
- Potential Regional Economic Effects of the Proposed Realignment of Eielson Air Force Base, 2006. The study evaluated the impacts of the pending realignment of the base on the Fairbanks North Star Borough, assessed the capacity of the community to adjust to the impacts, and recommended strategies to help the community adjust to the projected impacts. The economic impact assessment focused on the effects of the anticipated reduction in local spending by the base and the loss of 691 military and 26 civilian high paying jobs in the region. The study was conducted for the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
- Economic and Financial Impact Studies for the City of Wasilla, 2006. The project involved evaluating the following: i) the economic contribution of the Multi-Use Sports Complex to the region; ii) the economic impacts of moving the re-start of the Iditarod sled dog race to Willow instead of Wasilla; iii) the economic impacts of moving the start of the Iron Dog snow machine race to Wasilla instead of Big Lake; and iv) the economic contribution of the Wasilla Spirit amateur hockey team events. The study was conducted for the Department of Economic Development, City of Wasilla.
- The Economic Contributions of Hardrock Mining to Alaska, 2005. The study looked at the benefits of hardrock mining, particularly the Fort Knox/True North, Greens Creek, and the Red Dog mines. Employment, wages, and total wealth created, including payments to state and local governments, by hard rock mining in the state and the local economies where the mines are located were estimated. The study was prepared for the Alaska Miners’ Association (AMA) and was presented during the 2005 AMA Conference.
- An Economic Impact Analysis of the Agricultural Processing and Product Development Facility, 2005. The study evaluated the regional economic effects of the construction and annual operations of the proposed facility with respect to jobs, income, and economic output. The study was conducted for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough.
- Economic Impact Assessment of a Proposed Prison Facility in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, 2005. The study evaluated the economic impacts of building a 2,251-bed correctional facility in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. The impacts on the regional economy were evaluated based on the direct, indirect, and induced employment, labor income, value-added, and tax revenues that would potentially result from the construction and operation and maintenance investments. The study was commissioned by the Matanuska-Susitna Borough.
- An Economic Analysis of the Proposed Anchorage Convention and Civic Center, 2004. The study assessed the economic impacts of a proposed new Anchorage Civic and Convention Center Complex on the Anchorage economy. The study examined current usage of the Egan Center, national market demand for convention space, potential fiscal impacts, financing arrangements and risk sharing, and economic benefits of the proposed convention center. The study was conducted for the Anchorage Convention and Civic Center–Yes (ACCCY).
- The Economic Benefits of the Healy Clean Coal Project, 2004. The study estimated the potential economic contribution of the annual operations of the Healy Clean Coal Project and the short impacts of the construction/retrofit work to the state economy. The economic contribution was measured in terms of direct, indirect, and induced jobs, income, and economic output, as well as state and local government revenues that could be generated. The study was commissioned by the Golden Valley Electric Association (GVEA).
- The Economic Benefits of the Anchorage Museum of History and Art Proposed Expansion, 2003. The study quantified the financial impacts on Museum operations, fiscal impacts to the Municipality of Anchorage, and economic impacts to the community of Anchorage of the proposed Museum expansion. The study also assessed the impacts of the expansion project on property taxes. The study was conducted for the Museum Building Committee.
- Economic Impacts Assessment of Alyeska Layoffs and Economic Development Plan for Valdez, 2003. The study evaluated the direct and indirect impacts of employee layoffs and spending cutbacks by Alyeska Pipeline Service Company on the local economy. An economic development plan and diversification strategy was also developed as part of the study. The study was conducted for the City of Valdez.
- The Economic Impacts of Pacific Star Energy (PSE) Participation in the Alaska Natural Gas Industry, 2003. The study evaluated the economic benefits to the state of a 10 percent equity ownership of the Alaska natural gas pipeline project by Pacific Star Energy. The direct effects evaluated included O&M spending, shareholder dividends, construction spending on other natural gas related infrastructure, and financing activities by in-state financial institutions. The study was conducted for Pacific Star Energy.
- Economic Impact Assessment of a Proposed Hospital Facility in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, 2003. The study evaluated the economic impacts of building a hospital facility in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. The impacts on the regional economy were evaluated based on the direct, indirect, and induced employment, labor income, value-added, and tax revenues that would potentially result from the construction and operation and maintenance investments. The study was commissioned by the Matanuska-Susitna Borough.
- Economic Impact Assessment of the Proposed Expansion of Existing Prison Facilities at the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, 2003. Input-output analysis was used to estimate the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts to the Borough of expanding the existing prison facilities in the region. The study was commissioned by the Matanuska-Susitna Borough.
- The Economic Impacts of Anadarko’s Exploration, Development, and Production of Alaska North Slope Foothills Gas Operations, 2002. The study evaluated the potential direct, indirect, and induced economic effects on the North Slope Borough and the State of Alaska of the projected exploration, development, and production of natural gas in the North Slope Foothills. The study report was submitted to the Alaska Department of Natural Resources as part of the supporting documents for a best interest finding and determination. The study was conducted for Anadarko Petroleum Corporation.
- An Assessment of the Contribution of the Red Dog Mine Operations to the Economy of the Northwest Arctic Borough, 2002. The study quantified the relative importance of the Red Dog mine operations with respect to employment and income in the Northwest Arctic Borough using an input-output model of the regional economy. The direct impacts measured included payments to labor, payments to the vendors that supply Red Dog Mine’s inputs, royalty payments to the regional Alaska Native corporation (NANA Regional Corporation), and PILOT payments (payments in lieu of taxes) to the Borough. The associated multiplier effects of all these payments were also estimated. The study was conducted for the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA).
- Economic Overview of Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline Routes, 2001. The study estimated the potential statewide economic impacts in terms of employment and government revenues of two alternative pipeline routes. The study also evaluated the economic impacts of associated development and other business opportunities related to a natural gas industry in Alaska. The study was conducted for the Alaska Gas Producers Pipeline Team (AGPPT); under contract with URS Corporation.
- Gravina Island Bridge Access Project, 2001. The direct, indirect, and induced economic effects of the construction of various access alternatives to Gravina Island were estimated using input-output analysis. The study was conducted for the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities; under contract with HDR, Inc.
Benefit-Cost Analyses/Feasibility Studies
- Alternative Energy Proposal Economic Analysis, 2011-2016. This work involved conducting benefit cost analyses of proposed renewable energy projects. Projects assessed included hydroelectric, solar, wind, and geothermal. The results of the analyses were used by the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) in ranking project proposals for grant funding. The objective of the program was to provide benefits to Alaskans by reducing and stabilizing the cost of energy through development of renewable energy projects.
- Competitive Highway Bridge Program Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2018. The study was commissioned by the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities to support their application for grant funding for the Competitive Highway Bridge Program for Fiscal Year 2018. A BCA spreadsheet model was developed to determine the net present value of the expected benefits of proposed bridge projects in the Northern Region, South Coast Region, and Central Region of Alaska. The analysis also considered the cost effectiveness of bundling the projects during construction to generate cost savings.
- Alaska North Slope LNG Feasibility Study, 2013. The Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA) retained Northern Economics to assist in a feasibility study led by HDR Alaska, Inc. for a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant on the North Slope to serve the energy needs of the Fairbanks region. The LNG would be trucked to Fairbanks, re-gasified, and then put into an expanded piped natural gas distribution system in the medium and high density areas in Fairbanks. Northern Economics was primarily responsible for estimating the demand for natural gas as well as potential propane demand to serve the low density areas in the Fairbanks region. Northern Economics also developed the initial financial model for the LNG plant and the re-gasification facility.
- Marshall and Stebbins Wind Feasibility Studies, 2012. Northern Economics conducted economic analyses of proposed wind projects in two sites in rural Alaska—Marshall and Stebbins/St. Michael. The economic analyses looked at the viability of the proposed wind-diesel systems in the two sites. The evaluation involved a net present value analysis of the estimated benefits and the costs of the proposed wind projects. The concept for the wind-diesel system for Marshall involved the installation of two wind turbines to be integrated into the existing diesel generation system, adding another 200 kW of power generation capacity to the power plant. The analysis for the communities of Stebbins and St. Michael considered 4 different alternatives with two different turbine options (a 400-kW and a 900-kW system) at two turbine sites. The proposed project was intended to augment existing diesel generated power and heat to meet the requirements of the communities of Stebbins and St. Michael. The economic analyses were conducted in 2012 for the Alaska Village Electric Cooperative (AVEC). NEI was under contract with the engineering firm, HDL Engineering Consultants LLC.
- Foothills West Transportation Access Benefit-Cost and Financial Analysis, 2010. This study was commissioned by the Alaska Department of Transportation & Public Facilities to analyze the economic merits of a proposed road project that will provide access to oil and gas resources along the northwestern foothills of the Brooks Range, and within the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA). This economic analysis evaluated the benefits and costs—with and without the road—of further exploration, development, and production of the oil and gas resources in the region. A financial analysis was also conducted to show the distribution of costs and benefits among the various stakeholders.
- Chena Hot Springs to Circle Hot Springs Road Planning Study, 2006. A planning level benefit-cost analysis of alternative road corridors for a proposed new road northeast of Fairbanks was conducted. The proposed road would link Chena Hot Springs Road to Circle Hot Springs Road and would establish a scenic highway loop via the Chena Hot Springs Road and the Steese Highway north of Fairbanks. The study was commissioned by the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities; NEI was under contract with Tryck Nyman Hayes, Inc.
- Bullen Point Roadway Reconnaissance Study, 2005. The study examined economic and financial issues in the development of transportation infrastructure on state-owned lands that would allow year-round surface access into areas of high potential for oil and gas development and production. The study specifically explored the possible benefits and costs (following the Federal Highway Administration’s procedural guidelines for feasibility studies) of the proposed road corridor from the Dalton Highway east toward Point Thomson. The study estimated the cost savings that the road project would need to generate to cover the costs of building and maintaining the road. The study was commissioned by the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities; under contract with CH2M Hill.
- A Financial Analysis of the Yuut Elitnaurviat (YE) People’s Learning Center, 2002. The study evaluated the financial feasibility of the proposed vocational learning center in Bethel, explored alternative financing schemes, assisted in estimating facility operational costs, and provided an economic and demographic profile of the region to help assess the need for the facility. The facility is intended to help local residents fill the high wage jobs in the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta region. The study was conducted for the YE Consortium; under contract with Livingston Slone, Inc.
- A Financial Analysis of the Proposed Sanitation Facilities in the City of Kotlik, 2002. The study evaluated the net benefits of building new facilities, or expanding existing facilities under different development scenarios. The operating costs, capital costs, debt-servicing costs, and sinking fund costs for repair and replacement were compared to potential revenues to determine the financial feasibility of the sanitation facilities development alternatives. In addition, alternative sources of revenue were explored, including user fees and other fee structures to ensure the sustainability of the operations. The study was conducted as part of the feasibility study headed by Tryck, Nyman, Hayes, Inc.; under contract with the City of Kotlik.
- Resource Transportation Analysis: Dalton to Nuiqsut Access, 2002. The study was a planning level benefit-cost analysis of a proposed road from the Dalton Highway to Nuiqust, and then extending into the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska, which included a major bridge crossing of the Colville River. The study also evaluated various financing options and recommended a funding plan for the project. The study was commissioned by the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities; NEI was under contract with CH2M Hill.
Environmental Impact Statements (EIS)/Environmental Assessments (EA)
- Coastal Plain Oil and Gas Leasing Program EIS, 2018-ongoing. As part of the EMPSi team, participated in the internal scoping efforts, prepared data needs memorandum for the economic modeling efforts, assisted the team in developing the reasonable foreseeable development scenario for the EIS analysis, prepared the affected environment section on the economy, and conducted the economic analysis and modeling required to prepare the environmental consequences sections for the economy and environmental justice
- National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska Integrated Activity Plan EIS, 2019-ongoing. Prepared the affected environment and environmental consequences sections on socioeconomics. The study was conducted for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The BLM is conducting the EIS to evaluate a new Integrated Activity Plan (IAP) for the NPR-A to determine the appropriate management of all BLM-managed public lands in the NPR-A consistent with existing statutory direction. The economic effects of the various alternatives were analyzed with respect to effects on regional and statewide employment, income, and government revenues.
- Willow Master Development Plan EIS, 2019–ongoin g. Quantified the potential economic impacts of the proposed alternatives being considered for the Willow Master Development Plan EIS being prepared for BLM. The results of this economic impact analysis will be used to inform the environmental consequences section of the EIS.
- Fort Wainwright Heat and Electrical Upgrades EIS, 2019-ongoing. Prepared the affected environment chapter on socioeconomics and conducted the environmental consequences analysis for the EIS. The analysis involved identifying regions that would be affected by the proposed project alternatives and quantifying the potential economic impacts on these regions with respect to employment, income, and economic output (business sales).
- Willow Environmental Evaluation Document (EED), 2018. Northern Economics is a subcontractor in this ongoing project for ConocoPhillips, providing the necessary socioeconomic data and analysis required for the Economy sections of the EED. The economy sections include:
- a description of existing socioeconomic conditions, including population, employment, income, local businesses, regional and village corporations, government revenues, NPR-A Mitigation Fund disbursements to date, and infrastructure;
- an economic analysis of the potential effects of the proposed project alternatives at the local, regional, and statewide level. This includes direct employment and income effects, royalties and taxes, and potential indirect effects of construction and operations of the proposed project alternatives. The potential impacts to the economy are evaluated in terms of intensity, duration, context, and geographic extent;
- a review of past, current, and reasonably foreseeable future actions in terms of oil and gas exploration and development in the region that would inform the potential contribution (or effects) of the proposed project to the state of the communities and regional economy that would be affected.
- Greater Mooses Tooth 2 (GMT2) Modified NEPA Analysis, 2016. Assisted SLR in the preparation of the Modified NEPA Analysis document for ConocoPhillips to support the permitting process for the proposed GMT2 development project in the North Slope. The work involved providing information on the description of existing socioeconomic conditions in the Project area and quantifying the potential economic and fiscal impacts of the proposed project at the local, regional, and statewide level.
- Economic Analysis of Greater Mooses Tooth 2 Development (GMT2), 2017. Provided ConocoPhillips Alaska, Inc. (CPAI) a study that evaluated the project economics of the alternatives being considered for the proposed Greater Mooses Tooth 2 (GMT2) development. The analysis was requested to support CPAI’s application for environmental permits. The primary objective of the study was to determine whether the proposed project alternatives would be economically feasible given anticipated environmental restrictions such as development without permanent road access to the facility and seasonal drilling restrictions. The work was similar to the GMT1 economic analysis.
- Greater Mooses Tooth 1 (GMT1) Development Project Final EIS, 2014. Assisted SLR in the preparation of the Alpine Satellite Development Plan GMT1 Development Project Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Bureau of Land Management. The work included developing the description of existing socioeconomic conditions for the community of Nuiqsut, the North Slope Borough, and the state, and analyzing the economic impacts of the proposed Project alternatives at the local, regional, and state level. The economic impacts were quantified in terms of potential employment effects and government revenues such as property taxes, severance taxes, state corporate income tax, and royalty payments.
- Economic Analysis of Greater Mooses Tooth 1 Development, 2014. Provided the Bureau of Land Management an evaluation of the economic feasibility of alternatives that considered limited access to the GMT1 production facility using ice roads and a seasonal drilling restriction. Several economic and financial metrics such as expected monetary value, discounted profitability index, and internal rate of return were provided to determine whether such restrictions would result in the project not proceeding forward.
- Liberty Development Project: Development and Production Plan Environmental Impact Assessment, 2014. The work involved assisting SLR International in preparing the Environmental Impact Assessment for BP Alaska’s Liberty Project on the North Slope. The analysis involved traditional economic impact analysis for industry projects on the North Slope—that is, quantifying direct and indirect employment and income effects, as well as potential government revenues associated with the proposed project’s exploration, development, and production activities. The MAG-PLAN model developed by Northern Economics for the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management was used in the analysis. Since the MAG-PLAN model was designed for OCS activities, additional research and modeling was required for this project to incorporate other onshore activities specific to the Liberty Project.
- Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge Proposed Land Exchange EIS, 2006. Conducted for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Socioeconomic impacts that could result from the proposed land exchange between Doyon and USFWS and other alternatives were evaluated to help decide whether or not to proceed with the exchange or modify the proposed exchange agreement. Given the oil and gas potential in the Yukon Flats region, the EIS included an analysis of the potential statewide and regional economic impacts of potential exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in this region. Conducted under contract with ENSR.
- Knik Arm Bridge EIS, 2005-2006. An EIS conducted for the Knik Arm Bridge and Toll Authority (KABATA) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The direct, indirect, and cumulative effects of the proposed Knik Arm Bridge project were assessed according to potential impacts on population, employment, and income in the Municipality of Anchorage and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. The study was conducted under contract with HDR.
- Cordova Oil Spill Response Facility EIS, 2005-2006. The EIS was conducted for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Indian Affairs. The socioeconomic effects of the proposed oil spill response facility at Shepard Point, near Cordova were evaluated under different build alternatives. The study evaluated the potential effects on regional economic output, employment and income of the construction and operations of a dedicated deepwater port, additional staging and storage area, and a 4.5 mile access road to the Cordova road system. The study was conducted under contract with URS Corporation.
- Buckhorn Mountain Gold Mine SEIS, 2003-2004. A supplemental EIS conducted for the U.S. Forest Service and the Washington State Department of Ecology. The socioeconomic impacts of the proposed construction and operating alternatives for an underground gold mine on Buckhorn Mountain, near Chesaw, Washington, were evaluated. The analysis included the effects of both mining and milling operations on employment, income, population, and other demographic factors in the affected region. The study was conducted under contract with Shaw Environmental.
- Environmental Assessment of Alyeska Pipeline Service Company’s Strategic Reconfiguration Program, 2004. The economic impacts on the City of Valdez of the projected reduction in Alyeska’s workforce were evaluated as part of an environmental assessment of the structural reconfiguration program. The study was conducted under contract with Oasis Environmental.
- Northeast National Petroleum Reserve – Alaska Integrated Activity Plan (IAP) EIS, 2002-2003. An EIS conducted for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The socioeconomic effects of various IAP EIS alternatives were evaluated with respect to potential statewide and regional changes in employment, income, and government revenues. The study was conducted under contract with ENSR.
Other Socioeconomic Analyses
Oil and Gas/Transportation
- Socioeconomic Report: Oil Search Alaska Assets, 2019. This report was commissioned by Oil Search Alaska (OSA) to provide its stakeholders in Alaska and elsewhere information about the potential socioeconomic effects of development and production of its newly acquired Alaska assets. OSA intends to engage the local communities, the state, and regulatory agencies in conversations about the important socioeconomic issues and potential benefits associated with development of its newly acquired assets and explore the potential to leverage the lessons learned from its experience in providing benefits to the communities in Papua New Guinea. The objective of the study was to demonstrate the contribution of OSA’s proposed exploration, development, and production activities in Alaska, specifically with respect to jobs, labor income, North Slope oil production, benefits from facilities sharing and reduced tariffs for North Slope operators, economic activities and opportunities for Alaska businesses, local, regional, and state government revenues, and community socioeconomic benefits.
- The Alaska LNG Project. This project was the new iteration of the Alaska Pipeline Project. This project began for a consortium of Applicants including ExxonMobil, BP Alaska, ConocoPhillips, and the State of Alaska. It has now transitioned to a state project under the auspices of the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation. The project proponents are working towards submitting a new application to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to build the AK LNG Project. As in the previous project, the work involved evaluating the socioeconomic effects (economic, fiscal, and demographic) of the project at the local, regional, and statewide level. This socioeconomic information was submitted to FERC as a resource report. The information was used by FERC’s third party contractor to prepare the environmental impact statement for the project.
- Literature Review of BOEM’s OCS Leasing Strategy, 2014. Provided the American Petroleum Institute a report on a review of the literature regarding two different strategies employed by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management in leasing areas in the Outer Continental Shelf for oil and gas development. The objective of this research was to determine if prior studies support the belief that the area-wide approach was preferred over the a “target lease” or nomination approach; and which approach was better in terms of generating government revenues (e.g. bonus bids).
- The Alaska Pipeline Project. This project for ExxonMobil and TransCanada entails development of socioeconomic information related to a proposed major natural gas pipeline from the North Slope of Alaska to Alberta, Canada or Valdez, Alaska. The information is required by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in support of the application for a license to build the pipeline. The information will be used by FERC’s third party contractor to prepare the environmental impact statement for the project. The scope of work includes quantifying the economic, fiscal, and demographic impacts of the construction and operations of the project at the local, state, and national level.
- In-State Gas Demand Study, 2010. This study was commissioned by TransCanada Alaska Company, LLC to meet the requirements of the FERC open season regulations for their Alaska Pipeline Project. The study evaluated potential future demand for natural gas and propane for industrial uses, electric power generation, and heating demand from the residential and commercial sector, including the military. The study determined natural gas requirements for in-state use in two future timeframes (first 5 years and Years 10 to 15 of pipeline operations) by region and also for locations along the pipeline route to facilitate identification of at least five off-take or delivery points.
- Economic Analysis of Future Offshore Oil and Gas Development: Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, and North Aleutian Basin. This project for Shell Exploration and Production involved analyzing the potential economic effects that could accrue to the State of Alaska and affected boroughs and communities from development activities in the outer continental shelf (OCS) of Alaska.
- Preliminary and Interim Findings and Determination regarding the Fiscal Contract between the State of Alaska and the Producers’ Group as required by the Stranded Gas Development Act, 2005. The work was commissioned by the Alaska Department of Revenue. Northern Economics led the team in putting together the Fiscal Interest Finding document. This effort included preparing major sections of the preliminary Fiscal Interest Finding (FIF), editing and incorporating contributions of other authors, revising the document to reflect changes in terms during contract negotiations, and preparing the document for printing.
- Benefits Analysis of the Alaska Natural Gas Development Authority (ANGDA) natural gas project, 2004. An economic model was developed to measure the economic benefits of natural gas infrastructure development, in-state use of natural gas and natural gas liquids for power generation and industrial uses such as small-scale manufacturing of petrochemical products, and operations associated with processing and transporting natural gas. The work was conducted for the Alaska Natural Gas Development Authority (ANGDA).
- White Paper on the Resource Transportation Analysis (RTA) Program, 2005.The white paper sets out some of the key economic principles or factors at play in resource development and transportation projects in Northwest Alaska. The paper summarizes key economic findings revealed in the series of studies conducted under RTA program and discusses the major economic issues considered in determining the importance and or the benefits and costs of targeted transportation projects in Northwest Alaska. The study was commissioned by the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities (ADOT&PF); under contract with CH2MHill.
- Foothills West Economic Studies, 2006. The study involved evaluating land and air transportation modes in the North Slope Foothills region to assess how infrastructure could affect the economic viability of exploring, developing, and producing the oil and gas resources in the area and the economic impact of the project investments (construction, maintenance, and security costs) on the regional economy. The existing economic conditions in the Foothills West area and potential future growth, including the potential phasing of the investments to reflect the varying needs of the oil and gas industry during exploration, development, and production have been evaluated. The study was commissioned by the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities.
Rural Energy and Utilities
- End Use Energy Study, 2018. This project was conducted for Chugach Electric Association (CEA) to assist the electric utility in developing its near-term (2019–2021) and long-term (2022–2050) sales forecasts for residential customers. The study examined residential electricity use, with focus on three areas, i) gaining understanding of the underlying causes of declines in residential sales since 2004 as well as potential future trends, ii) examining end-use components of energy demand, and iii) improving CEA’s methodology of forecasting annual residential demand.
- Energy Options for the City of Atqasuk, 2007. This study was conducted for the North Slope Borough to evaluate energy alternatives for the City of Atqasuk. The analysis considered improvements to the current diesel based system such as waste heat recovery, end use conservation measures, alternative fuel transportation modes for fuel delivery, alternative sources, power generation, and heating systems, as well as alternative energy transfer and storage devices. The options were evaluated using a set of screening criteria. The final set of four energy options that topped the screening process was further evaluated with respect to their technical and economic feasibility.
- Atqasuk Power Intertie Feasibility Study, 2010. In 2010, the North Slope Borough requested for a follow-up study on one of the options—building an electric power transmission line (intertie) between Barrow and Atqasuk. The proposed intertie would supply electricity generated from the Barrow electric power facility using relatively inexpensive natural gas, displacing electricity generated at the Atqasuk power plant that uses relatively expensive diesel fuel for power and possibly also displacing diesel fuel used for heating in the community. The economics of the proposed project was evaluated by estimating the net present value of the cost savings associated with the proposed intertie project. The study evaluated a number of alternative configurations: a Western route versus an Eastern route; alternating current (AC) line versus a high voltage direct current (DC) line; and electricity generation for power only versus electricity generation for power and heat. The economic analysis compared eight configurations that arose from the combination of these options.
- Atqasuk Power line Economic Analysis, 2014. An even more in-depth benefit-cost and cost-effectiveness analyses of the Atqasuk Transmission Line project as part of a detailed engineering analysis. This time, the analysis involved evaluating six project alternatives with two engineering choices that were based on environmental recommendations by federal agencies, and varying load/generation options—power only, power plus residential heat, and power plus residential and commercial heat.
- Cost Assessment for Diesel Fuel Transition in Western and Northern Alaska Communities, 2007. This study for the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) involved looking at the energy use profiles and fuel storage and distribution systems of communities in Northern and Western Alaska, developing parameters and fuel distribution scenarios for modeling the impacts of the transition, and quantifying the costs and benefits of aggregating fuel purchases to obtain volume discounts under the new fuel rules.
- Tank Farm Sustainability, 2001. A business operating plan was developed to ensure financial sustainability for the bulk fuel tank facility in the community of Nelson Lagoon. The business plan assessed the facility operator’s ability to operate the business and estimated the facility’s operation and maintenance needs and costs, renewal and replacement needs and costs, and specified the revenues required its long-term sustainability. The study was part of the Bulk Fuel Upgrade Project of the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority and the Denali Commission.
- Alaska Rural Energy Plan, 2001. Analysis of options for reducing cost and improving reliability of energy in rural Alaska for Phase 2B of Alaska Rural Energy Plan; evaluate potential solutions and recommend implementation plans and associated policies; for Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the Denali Commission
Regional/Community Economic Development
- The Future of Southcentral Alaska with and without a Knik Arm Bridge: Economic Perspective, 2004. A white paper developed for the Knik Arm Bridge and Toll Authority (KABATA). The study explored trends in residential, commercial, and industrial development in the region, particularly the Municipality of Anchorage and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. Growth patterns with and without a Knik Arm bridge were evaluated.
- North Slope Economy, 1965 to 2005. An analysis of the economy of the North Slope Borough, particularly examining the changes in employment patterns from 1965 to present; under contract with the Minerals Management Service (MMS)
- North Slope Borough Jobs Impacts of CIP Projects, 2005. A study for the North Slope Borough that would determine work force requirements for the Borough’s Capital Improvement Projects and local labor skills and availability; under contract with Bezek Durst Seiser.
- Economic Geography of Southwest Alaska. The study evaluated the economic linkages and exchanges between the Southwest Alaska Municipal Conference (SWAMC) Region and Southcentral Alaska by looking at balance of trade, commodity flows, payments for services, and commuter/passenger flows between the regions. The study was commissioned by SWAMC.
- Anchorage Economy 1980 to present. An analysis of the evolution of the Anchorage economy from 1980 to present using trend analysis and shift-share analysis; under contract with the Anchorage Economic and Development Corporation (AEDC)
- Potential for Import Replacement of Manufactured Goods in Alaska, 2003. The study described the value of the manufacturing sector to the state, identified the industries that have high demand for manufactured goods, identified the top manufactured goods that are shipped into the state, identified existing manufacturing ventures, and provided recommendations on potential for import replacement. The study was commissioned by the Alaska Manufacturers’ Association.
- Recommendations for Evaluating Tax Exemptions/Deferrals for the Municipality of Anchorage, 2006. Northern Economics was contracted by the Municipality of Anchorage to provide a third-party review of a tax abatement application by a private developer. The intent of the review was to determine if the proposed development would hinge on the abatement for feasibility and provide a net benefit to the municipality.
October 2000-December 2000
Economist, Development Alternatives, Inc.
Project: Integrated Resources Management Project for the United States Agency for International Development IRMP,USAID)
- Evaluated environmental/natural resource issues in four ecological regions in the Philippines;
- Identified alternative enterprises to increase rural household incomes;
- Identified potential market-based instruments for environmental management
August 1999-September 2001
Economist/Executive Associate, Resources, Environment, and Economics Center for Studies, Inc. (REECS, Inc)
Project: Philippine Environmental and Natural Resources Accounting Project (ENRAP), USAID
- Collaborated with project consultants and researchers in preparing technical reports on resource accounting and environmental policy in the Philippines;
- Coordinated the “Final International Conference on Resource Accounting and Policy”;
- Delivered various lectures on environmental economics and resource valuation;
- Integrated various reports on the institutionalization of resource and environmental accounting within the Department of Natural Resources
May 1990-August 1992
Science Research Specialist, Technology Application and Promotion Institute, Department of Science and Technology
- Conducted surveys concerning sales opportunities and market potentials of new technologies;
- Participated in the inspection of projects under the research promotion program;
- Assisted in the conduct of annual technology fairs, investors’ forums, consultancy clinics;
- Developed and designed questionnaires, brochures, and other information materials.
RECENT TRAINING COURSES and SEMINARS ATTENDED
May 2015 – Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Training and Policy Conference conducted by REMI, Washington DC
June 2014 – The Voice of Leadership: How Leaders Inspire, Influence, and Achieve Results, conducted by the American Management Association, Los Angeles, CA
June 2014 – Get Work Now Bootcamp, conducted by PSMJ Resources, Inc., Las Vegas, NV
October 2013 – Advanced Petroleum Economics and Policy Analysis Course, conducted by Rodgers Oil and Gas Consulting, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
April 2013 – Project Management Boot Camp, conducted by PSMJ Resources, Inc. San Diego, CA
November 2012 – Developing Executive Leadership, conducted by the American Management Association, CA
GRADUATE RESEARCH AND TEACHING EXPERIENCE:
Graduate Research Assistant
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, August 1995-June 1999
Project: Integrated Pest Management Collaborative Research Support Program, USAID
- Evaluated pesticide toxicity in rice-onion farming systems
- Assessed the health and environmental risks of pesticide use
- Designed and administered a contingent valuation survey of onion producers
- Estimated technology adoption rates
Department of Political Science, Michigan State University, May 1995-July 1995
Project: Philippine Land Tenure Systems and Productivity, Ford Foundation
- Assisted in writing the grant proposal
- Gathered secondary socio-economic data in the Philippines
- Conducted training in SPSS for the staff of a local NGO
Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, January 1993-August 1995
Research projects include:
- Adoption of Reduced Insecticide Practices for Corn Rootworm Management in Michigan
- Bio-economic Modeling of Weed Management
- Michigan Equine Monitoring System
- Performed economic and statistical analyses of socio-economic and experimental data
Graduate Teaching Assistant
Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, 1993
- Course: World Food Production, Population and Poverty
PUBLICATIONS and PAPERS PRESENTED:
Cuyno, Leah, G. Norton, and A. Rola. Economic Analysis of Environmental Benefits of Integrated Pest Management: A Philippine Case Study. Forthcoming in the special issue of Agricultural Economics, August 2001.
Cuyno, Leah. Perspectives on Alternative Economic Instruments for Natural Resource Management in the Philippines. Submitted as part of the final project report on the Environmental and Natural Resources Accounting Project in the Philippines. May 2001.
Scott Swinton, Leah Cuyno and Frank Lupi. Factors Influencing the Adoption of IPM for Corn Rootworm in Michigan. Paper presented at the Annual American Agricultural Economics Association meeting and the Third National IPM Symposium/ Workshop, 1996. Abstract published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, December, 1996.
Cuyno, Leah. State of Knowledge on Irrigation Systems and Implications on Poverty and the Environment in Developing Countries. Paper presented in Advanced Topics in International Agricultural Development. Seminar Series, Michigan State University, Spring 1994.
PROFESSIONAL AND ACADEMIC AFFILIATIONS:
United States Association for Energy Economics
American Agricultural Economics Society
International Agricultural Economics Association
Gamma Sigma Delta Honor Society
International Honor Society of Phi Kappa Phi